« Persecution roundup: week of June 15-21, 2008

How-To

How to: unearth trends in France

As promised, here is the analysis of France. This European nation is significantly different from Afghanistan, and holds many opportunities for the Gospel despite our common perception of France as a Godless nation.

Here is the first bit of history, from 1900 to 1970:

Religion Name	Adh 1900	N	C	T	R%	R	Adh 1970
Atheists	30,000	102	21,240	21,342	5.77	1.06	1,524,000
Buddhists	-	-	385	385	15.69	1.16	27,000
Christians	40,731,100	138,684	(112,593)	26,091	0.06	1.00	42,557,500
Affiliated Christians	40,731,100	138,684	(112,593)	26,091	0.06	1.00	42,557,500
doubly-affiliated	(397,000)	(1,352)	(6,624)	(7,976)	1.26	1.01	(955,300)
Anglicans	500	2	205	207	4.98	1.05	15,000
Independents	-	-	4,284	4,284	19.74	1.20	299,904
Marginals	1,000	3	2,174	2,177	7.45	1.07	153,390
Orthodox	10,000	34	5,008	5,042	5.27	1.05	363,000
Protestants	902,000	3,071	(3,669)	(598)	(0.07)	1.00	860,166
Roman Catholics	40,344,000	137,366	(76,868)	60,498	0.14	1.00	44,578,898
disaffiliated	(129,400)	(441)	(37,105)	(37,546)	4.47	1.04	(2,757,558)
unaffiliated Christians	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Ethnoreligionists	-	-	714	714	16.72	1.17	50,000
Chinese universists	-	-	428	428	15.87	1.16	30,000
Hindus	-	-	285	285	15.20	1.15	20,000
Baha’is	-	-	44	44	12.17	1.12	3,100
Jews	86,900	296	6,319	6,615	2.67	1.03	550,000
Muslims	50,000	170	18,444	18,614	4.82	1.05	1,353,000
Neoreligionists	10,000	34	823	857	2.82	1.03	70,000
Nonreligious	92,000	313	63,729	64,042	5.74	1.06	4,575,000
Spiritists	-	-	171	171	14.36	1.14	12,000
Zoroastrians	-	-	5	5	8.94	1.09	400

This chart immediately shows us the dominance of Catholic Christianity in France in 1900: of 41 million people in the nation, some 40 million were part of the Catholic Church (and nearly another million were Protestants). Yet it also shows us the massive change in the 70 years to follow. The church remained virtually static in size: rising only because of demographic growth to just 42 million. Meanwhile France added another 8 million in population. Christianity lost 100,000 believers per year due to defections from its ranks. Athiesm, the nonreligious, and Islam were the main beneficiaries. Atheists grew from just 30,000 in 1900 to 1.5 million by 1970; the nonreligious, from 92,000 in 1900 to 4.5 million in 1970; and Muslims, from 50,000 in 1900 to 1.3 million in 1970. This was the period that was dominated by two World Wars, and we can see from the demographic data the enormous difference that made.

Now, let’s look at the period from 1970 to 2000:

Religion Name	Adh 1970	N	C	T	R%	R	Adh 2000
Atheists	1,524,000	8,419	18,231	26,650	1.42	1.01416	2,323,504
Buddhists	27,000	149	13,922	14,071	9.82	1.09825	449,152
Christians	42,557,500	235,112	(278,309)	(43,197)	(0.10)	0.99897	41,261,610
Affiliated Christians	42,557,500	235,112	(301,626)	(66,514)	(0.16)	0.99840	40,562,094
doubly-affiliated	(955,300)	(5,278)	5,248	(30)			(956,188)
Anglicans	15,000	83	(83)	-	-	1.00000	15,000
Independents	299,904	1,657	36,017	37,674	5.34	1.05345	1,430,140
Marginals	153,390	847	5,237	6,084	2.65	1.02648	335,930
Orthodox	363,000	2,005	7,731	9,736	1.99	1.01987	655,100
Protestants	860,166	4,752	8,703	13,455	1.29	1.01291	1,263,839
Roman Catholics	44,578,898	246,279	(261,634)	(15,355)	(0.03)	0.99965	44,118,273
disaffiliated	(2,757,558)	(15,234)	(102,848)	(118,082)	#NUM!	#NUM!	(6,300,000)
unaffiliated Christians	-	-	23,317	23,317	56.61	1.56613	699,516
Ethnoreligionists	50,000	276	1,692	1,968	2.63	1.02634	109,058
Chinese universists	30,000	166	3,337	3,503	5.14	1.05144	135,112
Hindus	20,000	110	712	822	2.72	1.02716	44,686
Baha’is	3,100	17	19	36	1.02	1.01016	4,198
Jews	550,000	3,039	(1,644)	1,395	0.24	1.00245	591,868
Muslims	1,353,000	7,475	111,395	118,870	4.40	1.04397	4,919,129
Neoreligionists	70,000	387	2,242	2,629	2.55	1.02547	148,873
Nonreligious	4,575,000	25,275	128,069	153,344	2.35	1.02347	9,175,342
Spiritists	12,000	66	323	389	2.29	1.02291	23,675
Zoroastrians	400	2	4	6	1.32	1.01315	592

In the 30 year period from 1970 to 2000, we see the church’s further decline. Now, the slower demographic growth is overtaken by the defections from the church, and it declines from 42 million to 41 million. Most of this decline is in the Catholic block; Independents made a startling gain: from 299,000 in 1970 to 1.4 million in 2000, going against the grain. Marginals, Orthodox, and Protestants too made gains, though not as spectacular as this. The numbers of nominal Christians–who claim on censuses to be Christian yet are not affiliated with any church–made some significant gains as well, although that is to be expected in this environment of increasing apathy. Meanwhile atheists and nonreligious doubled in numbers. But the biggest story here is the growth of the number of Muslims: from 1.3 million in 1900 to 4.9 million in 2000. By 2000 Muslims made up nearly 10% of France’s population. Is it any wonder that, with its economic straits and its huge minority Muslim population, France is very sensitive about issues related to Islam?

These two trends - the spectacular growth of Muslims and of Independent Christians - suggests a possible approach: can the independent churches be encouraged and equipped to reach out to Muslims? Very probably many of the Independent churches are minority churches - possibly led by Africans? - and would have a special affinity for the Muslims, many of whom are economic migrant workers.

Next, we move on to our future projection of 2000 to 2025:

Religion Name	Adh 2000	N	C	T	R%	R	Adh 2025
Atheists	2,323,504	10,336	24,723	35,059	1.29	1.01	3,200,000
Buddhists	449,152	1,998	4,035	6,033	1.17	1.01	600,000
Christians	41,261,610	183,549	(191,494)	(7,945)	(0.02)	1.00	41,063,000
Affiliated Christians	40,562,094	180,437	(186,641)	(6,204)	(0.02)	1.00	40,407,000
doubly-affiliated	(956,188)	(4,254)	(17,499)	(21,753)	(276.62)	(1.77)	(1,500,000)
Anglicans	15,000	67	333	400	2.06	1.02	25,000
Independents	1,430,140	6,362	16,432	22,794	1.35	1.01	2,000,000
Marginals	335,930	1,494	3,068	4,562	1.18	1.01	450,000
Orthodox	655,100	2,914	4,482	7,396	1.00	1.01	840,000
Protestants	1,263,839	5,622	13,824	19,446	1.31	1.01	1,750,000
Roman Catholics	44,118,273	196,257	(231,308)	(35,051)	(0.08)	1.00	43,242,000
disaffiliated	(6,300,000)	(28,025)	24,025	(4,000)	(287.17)	(1.87)	(6,400,000)
unaffiliated Christians	699,516	3,112	(4,853)	(1,741)	(0.26)	1.00	656,000
Ethnoreligionists	109,058	485	(448)	37	0.03	1.00	110,000
Chinese universists	135,112	601	1,194	1,795	1.15	1.01	180,000
Hindus	44,686	199	413	612	1.19	1.01	60,000
Baha’is	4,198	19	21	40	0.86	1.01	5,200
Jews	591,868	2,633	(2,308)	325	0.05	1.00	600,000
Muslims	4,919,129	21,882	61,352	83,234	1.42	1.01	7,000,000
Neoreligionists	148,873	662	1,383	2,045	1.19	1.01	200,000
Nonreligious	9,175,342	40,816	100,970	141,786	1.32	1.01	12,720,000
Spiritists	23,675	105	148	253	0.95	1.01	30,000
Zoroastrians	592	3	5	8	1.21	1.01	800

This is a middle-of-the-road projection by the World Christian Database for 2025. There are several things to note about it. First, don’t forget the very small religious minorities. Buddhists numbered 500,000 in 2025, but they are growing steadily and will reach 600,000 by 2025 and possibly 800,000 (or more) by 2050. Chinese and Hindus are likewise growing.

In this scenario, the decline of Christianity has been nearly stabilized: the Catholic bloc continues to decline but the gains from Independents and Protestants, coupled with demographic growth, nearly equals the losses. Christianity remains steady at 41 million members. Muslims, on the other hand, are growing apace, from 5 million to 7 million. The nonreligious, too, are likely to increase from 9 million to 12 million. It’s not a bad scenario but its not great either; choosing a better scenario means equipping the church in France to reach out to apathetic Catholics who are abandoning the church, as well as the nonreligious and Muslims. Each of these three blocs will require significantly different, contextualized approaches.

Finally, our long-term future from 2025 to 2050:

Religion Name	Adh 2025	N	C	T	R%	R	Adh 2050
Atheists	3,200,000	4,867	19,133	24,000	0.69	1.01	3,800,000
Buddhists	600,000	913	7,087	8,000	1.16	1.01	800,000
Christians	41,063,000	62,460	(150,920)	(88,460)	(0.22)	1.00	38,851,500
Affiliated Christians	40,407,000	61,462	(145,742)	(84,280)	(0.21)	1.00	38,300,000
doubly-affiliated	(1,500,000)	(2,282)	(1,718)	(4,000)	(277.08)	(1.77)	(1,600,000)
Anglicans	25,000	38	162	200	0.73	1.01	30,000
Independents	2,000,000	3,042	958	4,000	0.20	1.00	2,100,000
Marginals	450,000	684	6,316	7,000	1.32	1.01	625,000
Orthodox	840,000	1,278	(78)	1,200	0.14	1.00	870,000
Protestants	1,750,000	2,662	7,338	10,000	0.54	1.01	2,000,000
Roman Catholics	43,242,000	65,775	(164,455)	(98,680)	(0.23)	1.00	40,775,000
disaffiliated	(6,400,000)	(9,735)	5,735	(4,000)	(287.29)	(1.87)	(6,500,000)
unaffiliated Christians	656,000	998	(5,178)	(4,180)	(0.69)	0.99	551,500
Ethnoreligionists	110,000	167	633	800	0.67	1.01	130,000
Chinese universists	180,000	274	1,326	1,600	0.81	1.01	220,000
Hindus	60,000	91	509	600	0.90	1.01	75,000
Baha’is	5,200	8	44	52	0.90	1.01	6,500
Jews	600,000	913	(913)	-	-	1.00	600,000
Muslims	7,000,000	10,648	9,352	20,000	0.28	1.00	7,500,000
Neoreligionists	200,000	304	1,696	2,000	0.90	1.01	250,000
Nonreligious	12,720,000	19,348	111,852	131,200	0.92	1.01	16,000,000
Spiritists	30,000	46	194	240	0.73	1.01	36,000
Zoroastrians	800	1	7	8	0.90	1.01	1,000

Now, a twist on this series: knowing that France’s total population in 2025 is 65.7 million, and in 2050 is 68.2 million - how would you analyze this final projection to 2050? Why don’t you leave your thoughts and analysis in a comment below. If you’re involved in ministry to France, we’d love to hear a bit about what you do as well!

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© 2008 Momentum Magazine.
Related: The Mission Manual · Justin Long's Annotated Links and Notes