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Uncovering trends in Afghanistan

I wrote yesterday about how to calculate growth trends. Our topic today is how to interpret growth trends for a country. Remember the four variables of growth:

* Natural - births minus deaths plus immigrants minus emigrants.
* Conversion - converts to a religion minus defectors
* Total - Natural plus Conversion
* Growth Rate - how fast a population segment is growing.

Let’s look at Afghanistan again. We will begin with the period from 1900 to 1970.

Religion	1900	Natural	Conv	Total	R	1970
Atheists	-	-	22	22	1.11	1,600
Christians	200	4	49	53		4,020
Anglicans	-	-	1	1	1.07	100
Independents	-	-	4	4	1.08	300
Marginals	-	-	-	-	1.04	20
Orthodox	-	-	-	-	-	-
Protestants	100	2	19	21	1.04	1,600
Roman Catholics	100	2	25	27	1.04	2,000
Ethnoreligionists	20,000	378	(521)	(143)	0.99	10,000
Hindus	5,000	94	1,263	1,357	1.04	100,000
Baha’is	-	-	5	5	1.09	400
Jews	4,000	76	(131)	(55)	0.96	200
Sikhs	-	-	28	28	1.11	2,000
Muslims	5,070,700	95,733	(818)	94,915	1.01	11,714,780
unaffiliated Christians	100	2	53	55	1.05	4,000
Nonreligious	-	-	-	-	-	-
Zoroastrians	-	-	42	42	1.12	3,000

You can see almost at a glance some important trends. First, notice the increase in the numbers of atheists. Second, the halving of ethnoreligionists - these are small tribes that follow their own ethnic religions.
We see the dramatic increase in the number of Hindus, and the virtal loss of the Jewish community. Total Christians likewise grew from about 200 to about 4,000. Also notice that Muslims doubled in size. So what happened?

Without resorting to history, let’s see if we can guess. First, the natural rate is based on the growth in the country as a whole. The growth rate of the whole country can “lose” a little bit of immigration within tiny minorities. So, we might assume at least some of the changes in the Hindu, Jewish and Christian communities was the result of immigration.

The decline of ethnic religions is an old story: when an ethnic religion is approached by a major world religion, the ethnic religion tends to convert. Since each year the loss of ethnoreligionist faiths is about 500 people per year, and Christianity is only gaining 49 per year by conversion, we can safely assume those ethnic religions are likely becoming Muslims (and perhaps a few Hindus as well). Many of those conversions would likely be the result of marriage.

Now, let’s examine the period from 1970 to 2000. “Hidden” within this time is the period of the Soviet invasion and subsequent withdrawal.

Religion	1970	Natural	Conv	Total	R	2000
Atheists	1,600	40	(90)	(50)	0.91	105
Christians	4,020
Anglicans	100	3	(5)	(2)	0.98	50
Independents	300	8	79	86	1.08	2,880
Marginals	20	1	6	6	1.08	200
Orthodox	-	-	4	4	1.18	135
Protestants	1,600	40	(79)	(39)	0.96	440
Roman Catholics	2,000	50	(82)	(32)	0.98	1,040
Ethnoreligionists	10,000	250	(490)	(240)	0.96	2,821
Hindus	100,000	2,505	(5,313)	(2,808)	0.94	15,760
Baha’is	400	10	346	356	1.12	11,107
Jews	200	5	(12)	(7)	0.86	2
Sikhs	2,000	50	(28)	22	1.01	2,675
Muslims	11,714,780	293,439	5,878	299,316	1.02	20,694,275
unaffiliated Christians	4,000	100	(228)	(128)	0.90	164
Nonreligious	-	-	65	65	1.29	1,970
Zoroastrians	3,000	75	(55)	20	1.01	3,629

Here are some things that can be observed. First, there is the decline of atheists in the wake of Communism’s retreat. Second, there is the enormous increase in independent Christians when all others declined. That’s the underground church. There is the further massive decline of ethnic religions, many of which were deeply hurt during Communism. There is the huge decline in Hinduism, which would be worth an article. The Jewish community basically left Afghanistan entirely: “2″ adherents is mostly just a way of saying “a handful of Jews remain.” The Muslim community remained vibrant and very much the dominant force in the nation, continuing to grow largely by demographics (in spite of the war, adding nearly 300,000 people per year) as well as by conversion (6,000 per year–roughly parallel with Hinduism’s decline). This table is a great picture of the resilience of a highly religious group in the face of deep political oppression. As I have written before, the Soviets never really had a chance in Afghanistan.

Now, let’s look at the immediate mid-term future to 2025, as projected by the World Christian Encyclopedia:

Religion	2000	Natural	Conv	Total	R	2025
Atheists	105	5	10	15	1	500
Christians
Anglicans	50	3	(1)	2	1	100
Independents	2,880	145	339	484	1	15,000
Marginals	200	10	22	32	1	1,000
Orthodox	135	7	(9)	(2)	1	100
Protestants	440	22	160	182	1	5,000
Roman Catholics	1,040	53	(47)	6	1	1,200
Ethnoreligionists	2,821	142	(95)	47	1	4,000
Hindus	15,760	796	(1,027)	(231)	1	10,000
Baha’is	11,107	561	(206)	355	1	20,000
Jews	2	0	(0)	-	1	10
Sikhs	2,675	135	(122)	13	1	3,000
Muslims	20,694,275	1,045,419	1,073	1,046,492	1	46,856,590
unaffiliated Christians	164	8	65	73	1	2,000
Nonreligious	1,970	99	2	101	1	4,500
Zoroastrians	3,629	183	(169)	14	1	4,000

Here we see the situation really remains pretty much unchanged. Christians are expected to grow to about 15,000 people, both through natural growth and conversion–a respectable number, but in third place between Baha’is (20,000) and Hindus (10,000). The Muslim number is really startling, however: between 2000 and 2025, Muslims are expected to more than double, virtually all from natural demographic growth. One can hardly ask the Muslims to stop having children so that Christians can more easily convert them! On the other hand, Christians the world over (including those with Afghanistan) have yet to really come to grips with the demographic reality of the situation. This massive growth brings us more challenges than just witnessing, conversion and discipleship–yet so far we have been unable to scale up our ministries to deal with all of the ramifications.

Finally, let’s look at Afghanistan’s situation to 2050. These are extreme long-range projections and should be taken as “portraits” rather than “photographs.”

Religion	2025	Natural	Conv	Total	R%	R	2050
Atheists	500	846	14	(2)	12	1	800
Christians
Anglicans	100	169	3	(3)	-	1	100
Independents	15,000	25,387	415	185	600	1	30,000
Marginals	1,000	1,692	28	(8)	20	1	1,500
Orthodox	100	169	3	(3)	-	1	100
Protestants	5,000	8,462	138	(78)	60	1	6,500
Roman Catholics	1,200	2,030	33	(21)	12	1	1,500
Ethnoreligionists	4,000	6,769	111	(111)	-	1	4,000
Hindus	10,000	16,924	277	(277)	-	1	10,000
Baha’is	20,000	33,849	554	(154)	400	1	30,000
Jews	10	16	0	(0)	-	1	10
Sikhs	3,000	5,077	83	(83)	-	1	3,000
Muslims	46,856,590	79,303,832	1,297,890	706	1,298,596	1	79,321,490
unaffiliated Christians	2,000	3,384	55	(55)	-	1	2,000
Nonreligious	4,500	7,616	125	15	140	1	8,000
Zoroastrians	4,000	6,769	111	(111)	-	1	4,000

Once again, most things remain the same. The church is projected to double to perhaps 30,000, growing faster than the other minorities (slipping into a tie with the Baha’is) but still a very small portion of the
country as a whole. Muslims are just short of doubling yet again. With a total national population in excess of 79 million–and the vast majority of those Muslims–it is unlikely that Afghanistan will be Christian
any time soon. Moreover, unless we find some unique ways of bringing the Good News to this nation, a large portion of the population will still have no idea of Christ, Christianity or the Gospel by then.

Tomorrow, we’ll look at similar trends in a different country: France.

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© 2008 Momentum Magazine.
Related: The Mission Manual · Justin Long's Annotated Links and Notes