Here is the first bit of history, from 1900 to 1970:

This chart immediately shows us the dominance of Catholic Christianity in France in 1900: of 41 million people in the nation, some 40 million were part of the Catholic Church (and nearly another million were Protestants). Yet it also shows us the massive change in the 70 years to follow. The church remained virtually static in size: rising only because of demographic growth to just 42 million. Meanwhile France added another 8 million in population. Christianity lost 100,000 believers per year due to defections from its ranks. Athiesm, the nonreligious, and Islam were the main beneficiaries. Atheists grew from just 30,000 in 1900 to 1.5 million by 1970; the nonreligious, from 92,000 in 1900 to 4.5 million in 1970; and Muslims, from 50,000 in 1900 to 1.3 million in 1970. This was the period that was dominated by two World Wars, and we can see from the demographic data the enormous difference that made.

Now, let’s look at the period from 1970 to 2000:

In the 30 year period from 1970 to 2000, we see the church’s further decline. Now, the slower demographic growth is overtaken by the defections from the church, and it declines from 42 million to 41 million. Most of this decline is in the Catholic block; Independents made a startling gain: from 299,000 in 1970 to 1.4 million in 2000, going against the grain. Marginals, Orthodox, and Protestants too made gains, though not as spectacular as this. The numbers of nominal Christians–who claim on censuses to be Christian yet are not affiliated with any church–made some significant gains as well, although that is to be expected in this environment of increasing apathy. Meanwhile atheists and nonreligious doubled in numbers. But the biggest story here is the growth of the number of Muslims: from 1.3 million in 1900 to 4.9 million in 2000. By 2000 Muslims made up nearly 10% of France’s population. Is it any wonder that, with its economic straits and its huge minority Muslim population, France is very sensitive about issues related to Islam?

These two trends - the spectacular growth of Muslims and of Independent Christians - suggests a possible approach: can the independent churches be encouraged and equipped to reach out to Muslims? Very probably many of the Independent churches are minority churches - possibly led by Africans? - and would have a special affinity for the Muslims, many of whom are economic migrant workers.

Next, we move on to our future projection of 2000 to 2025:

This is a middle-of-the-road projection by the World Christian Database for 2025. There are several things to note about it. First, don’t forget the very small religious minorities. Buddhists numbered 500,000 in 2025, but they are growing steadily and will reach 600,000 by 2025 and possibly 800,000 (or more) by 2050. Chinese and Hindus are likewise growing.

In this scenario, the decline of Christianity has been nearly stabilized: the Catholic bloc continues to decline but the gains from Independents and Protestants, coupled with demographic growth, nearly equals the losses. Christianity remains steady at 41 million members. Muslims, on the other hand, are growing apace, from 5 million to 7 million. The nonreligious, too, are likely to increase from 9 million to 12 million. It’s not a bad scenario but its not great either; choosing a better scenario means equipping the church in France to reach out to apathetic Catholics who are abandoning the church, as well as the nonreligious and Muslims. Each of these three blocs will require significantly different, contextualized approaches.

Finally, our long-term future from 2025 to 2050:

Now, a twist on this series: knowing that France’s total population in 2025 is 65.7 million, and in 2050 is 68.2 million - how would you analyze this final projection to 2050? Why don’t you leave your thoughts and analysis in a comment below. If you’re involved in ministry to France, we’d love to hear a bit about what you do as well!

PBS’s Frontline will be doing a show called “Jesus In China”
next week, around June 24 and 25. The show will focus on the growth of
the Christian Church in China.
You can presently see what time/station it will be on in your area. The church in China is
growing faster than in any other country, in any other time in history.
Consider this a ‘must see’ for anyone interested in the current, and future
face of the church and missions. Hat Tip: Brian McAtee.

* Natural - births minus deaths plus immigrants minus emigrants.
* Conversion - converts to a religion minus defectors
* Total - Natural plus Conversion
* Growth Rate - how fast a population segment is growing.

Let’s look at Afghanistan again. We will begin with the period from 1900 to 1970.

You can see almost at a glance some important trends. First, notice the increase in the numbers of atheists. Second, the halving of ethnoreligionists - these are small tribes that follow their own ethnic religions.
We see the dramatic increase in the number of Hindus, and the virtal loss of the Jewish community. Total Christians likewise grew from about 200 to about 4,000. Also notice that Muslims doubled in size. So what happened?

Without resorting to history, let’s see if we can guess. First, the natural rate is based on the growth in the country as a whole. The growth rate of the whole country can “lose” a little bit of immigration within tiny minorities. So, we might assume at least some of the changes in the Hindu, Jewish and Christian communities was the result of immigration.

The decline of ethnic religions is an old story: when an ethnic religion is approached by a major world religion, the ethnic religion tends to convert. Since each year the loss of ethnoreligionist faiths is about 500 people per year, and Christianity is only gaining 49 per year by conversion, we can safely assume those ethnic religions are likely becoming Muslims (and perhaps a few Hindus as well). Many of those conversions would likely be the result of marriage.

Now, let’s examine the period from 1970 to 2000. “Hidden” within this time is the period of the Soviet invasion and subsequent withdrawal.

Here are some things that can be observed. First, there is the decline of atheists in the wake of Communism’s retreat. Second, there is the enormous increase in independent Christians when all others declined. That’s the underground church. There is the further massive decline of ethnic religions, many of which were deeply hurt during Communism. There is the huge decline in Hinduism, which would be worth an article. The Jewish community basically left Afghanistan entirely: “2″ adherents is mostly just a way of saying “a handful of Jews remain.” The Muslim community remained vibrant and very much the dominant force in the nation, continuing to grow largely by demographics (in spite of the war, adding nearly 300,000 people per year) as well as by conversion (6,000 per year–roughly parallel with Hinduism’s decline). This table is a great picture of the resilience of a highly religious group in the face of deep political oppression. As I have written before, the Soviets never really had a chance in Afghanistan.

Now, let’s look at the immediate mid-term future to 2025, as projected by the World Christian Encyclopedia:

Here we see the situation really remains pretty much unchanged. Christians are expected to grow to about 15,000 people, both through natural growth and conversion–a respectable number, but in third place between Baha’is (20,000) and Hindus (10,000). The Muslim number is really startling, however: between 2000 and 2025, Muslims are expected to more than double, virtually all from natural demographic growth. One can hardly ask the Muslims to stop having children so that Christians can more easily convert them! On the other hand, Christians the world over (including those with Afghanistan) have yet to really come to grips with the demographic reality of the situation. This massive growth brings us more challenges than just witnessing, conversion and discipleship–yet so far we have been unable to scale up our ministries to deal with all of the ramifications.

Finally, let’s look at Afghanistan’s situation to 2050. These are extreme long-range projections and should be taken as “portraits” rather than “photographs.”

Once again, most things remain the same. The church is projected to double to perhaps 30,000, growing faster than the other minorities (slipping into a tie with the Baha’is) but still a very small portion of the
country as a whole. Muslims are just short of doubling yet again. With a total national population in excess of 79 million–and the vast majority of those Muslims–it is unlikely that Afghanistan will be Christian
any time soon. Moreover, unless we find some unique ways of bringing the Good News to this nation, a large portion of the population will still have no idea of Christ, Christianity or the Gospel by then.

Tomorrow, we’ll look at similar trends in a different country: France.

Start with the population at two points in time (for example, 1990 and 2000). Get the population of a smaller part of the population. For example, find the Christian population in 1990 and 2000. Use these to figure out the non-CHristian population: Total Populatino minus Christian population.

Here is the first formula: population growth rate. In a spreadsheet like Microsoft Excel, it’s written: G = (popLater / popEarlier) ^ (1/TotalTime). So, for example, you might use:

G=(pop2000/pop1990)^(1/10)

This formula can help you find out the net natural demographic growth rate. Net natural demographic growth is births, minus deaths, plus immigrants (people moving in), minus emigrants (people moving out). Next we will use this to find out the rate of conversion or defection from Christianity.

1. Compute the growth rate for the population as a whole.

G = (pop2000/pop1990)^(1/10)

The result of this formula is a ratio, not a percentage. The percentage growth can be obtained by the formula P=(G-1)*100, but that’s more for display than for use in the following formulas.

2. Compute the expected natural population for the subsect

ExpectedNatural = Christian1990*(G^10)

Christian1990 = the number of Christians in 1990;
G = The overall growth rate
10 = the number of years you are measuring for.

This gives you the expected total population of the segment in 2000, not accounting for conversion. Next, use this formula:

AnnualNatural = (ExpectedNatural-Christian1990)/10

This gives you the annual “natural” population growth.

3. Compute the actual growth rate for the subsect

AnnualTotalGrowth = (Christian2000-Christian1990)/10

This gives you the total annual growth of the segment (which would include both natural and conversion growth). This is different than the natural growth computed above.

4. Compute conversions

AnnualConverts = AnnualTotalGrowth-AnnualNaturalGrowth.

If this formula results in a negative number, then you have more defectors than converts and you’re in decline. If the number is positive, you have more converts than defectors and you’re growing (although this does not exclude the possibility of some—perhaps even many—defectors).

Here’s an example from the World Christian Database entry for Afghanistan. I’ve computed growth patterns for the period 1900 to 1970.

Afghanistan

Afghanistan was marked by some small numbers of converts, but by and large the non-Christian (Muslim) population expanded primarily through births to Muslim families. The relatively small rate of conversion was enough to expand the church from just 300 people to an estimated 8,000–but this was a very small part of the overall 11.8 million.

Tomorrow, I’ll show you how to extend this with additional data into national trends projected out to 2025. Then, we’ll look at regional and global trends using this methodology.